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The views expressed are his own and constitute an assessment of Syrian strategic think-ing. Raymond Hinnebusch may be contacted via e-mail at: rh10 st-andrews.

The objective of this study was to characterize the variety of factors associated with motor-vehicle deaths among Marines. The study points to a number of risk factors career events and characteristics of individual Marines that are highly associated with deaths. This study examines the operational effects of "global train and equip" programs in Lebanon, Pakistan, Yemen, Sao Tome and Principe. In light of these tasks, we set out to examine the following question: Are there characteristics and challenges so specific to Millennials that the military must develop targeted policies in order to appeal to this generational cohort?

The report presents an extensive review of current literature, identifies empirical evidence from various data sources, and explores how employers are responding to changing workforce expectations may or may not be driven by generational characteristics. Based on our research and some general findings, the report offers a number of conclusions that may prove helpful to military decision makers.

The Army's Green Warriors: Environmental Considerations in Contingency Operations | RAND

We evaluate the? We evaluate the Navy? First, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of deviations from the? Second, we examine whether officers are more likely to achieve certain career milestones if they came from one particular accession source. Our evaluation of? The working group made recommendations to increase the visibility and desirability of the submarine community and to change the service selection process. To support N, we analyzed data on recent applications to USNA and to the NROTC scholarship program and find that both programs will have to substantially increase the number of minority applications to reach diversity goals.

The National Guard Youth Challenge ChalleNGe program enrolls young high school dropouts into a system that combines classroom instruction with a quasi-military environment. Most graduates also earn a GED or other credential while enrolled. We find evidence that the first term attrition rate of ChalleNGe graduates has fallen over time. In addition, there are significant differences between programs both in terms of program completion and eventual military attrition of those who enlist. This variation may arise from differences either in how the program is implemented or in the population served by the program.

We find both factors influence outcomes? Finally, we make the case that non-cognitive skills are likely to be a driving factor in explaining the performance of ChalleNGe cadets.

Tactical System Connects Units

The Operational Environmental Readiness Division in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations CNO-N asked CNA to examine whale strandings and Navy operations in southern California, to quantify the level of sonar activity taking place and see if there is any indication of a link between sonar use and strandings. Looking separately at gray whales present seasonally and all other species, our analysis found no correlation between navy exercises and whale strandings in the southern California area. Subsequent to Vickrey's seminal statement of the revenue equivalence theorem, theory has shown that revenue rankings are quite sensitive to the variation in underlying assumptions regarding the structure of the auction game.

Additionally, previous empirical studies of field auction data have found limited instances of revenue equivalence in real-life bidding situations. We find some evidence that open-bid auctions dominate yield lower procurement cost for semiconductors, switches, and fittings, with savings from using open bidding ranging from 4 to 8 percent.

We cannot reject revenue equivalence of the two formats for vehicle parts. Thus, our fixed-effects regression estimates suggest small revenue differences between open and sealed-bid auctions for all four product classes studied, though even in our handful of commodity classes, the realtive performance of auction formats is not uniform.

N asked CNA to study operational stress and postdeployment behavior in Seabees. Enlisted Seabees have many more alcohol- and drug-related behaviors than do officers, so the following results concern enlisted personnel. Active duty GWOT unit deployments are not associated with later negative behaviors, unless length of deployment is considered. Incidents related to alcohol and drugs occur both soon after return from deployments 6 months. Reservists express more negative emotions after return from GWOT deployments than do active duty.

Reservists had 30 to 45 total incidents per year alcohol- or drug-related from to , but alcohol incidents of reservists are underreported. We recommend that the Navy seek ways to expand support for active duty who return from GWOT deployments of more than 6 months, and that support efforts continue for more than 6 months after return from GWOT. We recommend an expansion of support for returning GWOT reservists and more detailed study of reservists and Individual Augmentees. For officers in Navy Medicine, this paper provides demographic representation baselines derived from the US population, the civilian medical labor force, and the potential patient pool.

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Focusing on the civilian labor force, it identifies three demographic trends that are affecting and will affect representation in Navy Medicine: The civilian equivalents of Navy Medicine's officer corps are aging and becoming increasingly female and increasingly foreign. This study provides analysis in support of development of an education strategy for URL officers. The primarily focus is graduate education, but we also consider undergraduate education. For graduate education, we conclude that the Navy should have a strategic goal of providing advanced education that meets Navy goals and needs, without sacrificing warfare proficiency or officer and family quality of life.

We find there are many reasons for graduate education and every officer should have an opportunity for graduate education that is focused on Navy needs. Officer careers are varied and contain little time for graduate education.

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In addition, career paths inhibit graduate education utilization. So, the Navy should examine the timing of education and expand varied education delivery options, including resident, non-resident, online and short certificate programs, to provide education that fits into officer careers and facilitates education utilization. The Navy should expand PME to broaden officers? Finally, the Navy should take steps to remove institutional barriers, such as commands having no incentives to support graduate education. This report details the data analysis done to support the development of an education strategy for Navy URL officers.

The Navy is a technical institution, and is believed that URL officers must have a technical background to succeed. Within an officer's career, however, there is a shift in job requirements from tactical proficiency to decision-making and critical thinking. Our analysis finds that the proportion of URL officers with a technical undergraduate degree has not declined in recent years.

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Recent increases in female accessions have not caused a drop in the proportion of officers with technical degrees. Previous results have shown that technical officers are more likely to pass initial training, but there are no further impacts on an officer's career. The graduate education data show that URL officers typically obtain degrees early in their careers and most officers have a graduate degree by the time they are commanders. We show that there is limited time in the URL officer's career path for in-resident graduate education.

Aviators have the least room in the career path for graduate education. We also find that the utilization of graduate education is very low, in part due to problems with the assignment process. A standard method of comparing military and civilian compensation is to focus on the cash portion of the compensation package. Studies have shown that on average, Regular Military Compensation RMC compares favorably with the earned income of the 70th percentile full-time civilians of similar education levels. However, looking only at cash ignores differences in the relative value of military and civilian non-cash benefits, and is akin to assuming they are equal.

We show that military benefits are more valuable using data to estimate the differences in the relative values of three important benefits: the State and FICA military tax advantages, the health care benefit, and the retirement benefit. We add these differences in values to military cash compensation to form a more accurate? The top line dollar amount estimated by this method is called Military Annual Compensation MAC , and compares favorably with the 80th percentile earned income for comparable civilians.

Future comparisons of military and civilian compensation packages should include non-cash benefits. One major issue is the undergraduate education of officers, in particular, the need for a technical education background. This paper reports on analysis directed at looking for empirical evidence that a technical education has an impact on tactical proficiency. Similarly, destroyers and submarines that won a Battle E did not have a higher percentage of officers with technical education backgrounds.

The current military retirement system dates back to , when Congress implemented a common year system for all services and for officers and enlisted personnel alike. Over the years, critics have charged that the system is 1 excessively costly and unfair to taxpayers, 2 inefficient, 3 unfair to the vast majority of entrants who do not serve long enough to receive any benefits, and 4 inflexible and hampers force management. The purpose of this paper is to provide the 10th QRMC with a discussion of the issues relating to the military retirement system.

To set the stage for the discussion that follows, the first main section outlines what a personnel system should do. Here, the purposes of compensation and personnel policy are reviewed and certain institutional constraints that influence the structure of the military compensation system are identified. The next section highlights the structure of the current compensation system and the outcomes that result from this structure.


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The third main section evaluates the past criticisms of the retirement system. The fourth section discusses the retirement reform recommendations of several past commissions and identifies the broad features of a revised system. We construct a model that estimates the ratio of the number of mobilizable reservists that will be available for each mobilization requirement in each quarter for the next 3 years.

We predict the ratio for 42 enlisted ratings and 14 officer designators. We then illustrate with the Builder BU rating how to conduct sensitivity analyses to see the effect on capacity and help identify strategies for improvement. Specifically, we show what would happen to the ratio if continuation rates were increased, if recruiting were increased, or if the mission were decreased. We examined the impact of changing recruit quality and recruiting resources on the first term performance of Navy sailors.

We identified two key performance measures: completion of enlistment and promotion rates. We constructed scenarios to examine how changing these factors would affect first term performance, based on the Navy? We found that changing recruit quality had a small impact on completion rates, but a much larger effect on job performance, as measured by promotion rates. When we examined DEP policy, we found that changes in DEP time produced larger changes in first term performance than recruit quality.

We found that recruiting more high AFQT non-graduates would have the smallest long-term impact on performance. The large size and cost of the Navy's shore establishment make it imperative that the Navy have an effective and efficient shore manpower requirements determination process SMRDP. In this study, CNA developed several recommendations, including: building a set of SMRDP guidelines for all BSOs to follow, not applying the sea requirements process to shore requirements, making all Rotation and Career Progression billets subject to cost analysis and review, taking a harder look at all billets ineligible for competition by tradition or DoD decision, aligning incentives of BSOs and Navy for use of military manpower, using activity-based costing or similar methodology to calculate actual not estimated cost of activities, and increasing training for staff involved in shore manpower requirements determination.


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  • This study, sponsored by Commander, US Naval Forces Central Command, identifies the future missions, concepts of operations, and capability requirements for the Iraqi Navy, and recommends a force structure for and beyond. We found that the Iraqi Navy will need two patrol boats; six fast, armed shallow-draft boats; three harbor patrol craft; three armed helicopters; coastal artillery; fixed radar; automatic identification systems; forward-looking infrared equipment; specialized units for diving, mine countermeasures, and explosive ordnance disposal; and equipment to provide flexible and secure command, control, and communications.